Andrew Scheer vs. Peter MacKay vs. Erin O'Toole vs. Leslyn Lewis

Why was Andrew Scheer displaced as leader of the Conservative Party when he received more votes than Justin Trudeau in the last election, however lost due to strategic balloting? That is a good question and many political analysts expect that the recent election was more of a question between political ideologies, back-room deals, and quid-pro-quo negotiations between rival factions.

Its rumored that Andrew Scheer was scapegoated by the Clark and Harper political dynasties when it was found that Minister Raybould stepped down to her alleged involvement with Mummar Ghaddafi and the intricated and very complex world of the new era’s blame-game politics, or was Andrew Scheer’s vote given up by a close confident who sold his allegiance by strategically giving up his vote to the “greater good” per say, and is the ‘greater good’ an obstacle in the future spectrum of quid-pro-quo politics and dichotomy of auld (old) alliances vs. the new political dynasties being forged through nuevo money and nuevo fame.

"was Andrew Scheer’s vote given up by a close confident who sold his allegiance by strategically giving up his vote to the “greater good” per say, and is the ‘greater good’ an obstacle in the future spectrum of quid-pro-quo politics and dichotomy of auld (old) alliances vs. the new political dynasties being forged through nuevo money and nuevo fame"

In order to determine who will become the next conservative political leader and hypothetically the next Prime Minister of Canada, we must first evaluate between the new conservative rivals and which rival speaks to the conservative base, while ensuring that a new breed of conservative politics conforms to the consensus of Canadians without being too right winged, etc. Conservative politics has been characterized by many new political analysts as being too old fashioned and inundated by old-school political ideologies. This means that conservative politics is out of touch with the consensus of most Canadians and as such, is out of touch with what Canadians perceive as being ‘good government’.

This means that conservative politics is out of touch with the consensus of most Canadians and as such, is out of touch with what Canadians perceive as being ‘good government’.

We have recently learned that the scandal plagued world of do-it-yourself, grass roots, ad-hoc political advocacy for leadership hopefuls is really a question of who has the most financial resources, thereby ensuring that the leadership race is a race of finances, etc. along with favor for favors, etc.

In comparison, Justin Trudeau politics has proven to appease most Canadians and his recent performance in battling the COVID19 pandemic has proven his resilience in the scandal plagued world of politics, thus far. There is a good chance due to Trudeau's popularity, that his tenure as PM will last longer then his predecessor ex-PM Stephen Harper, however the winner of the Conservative leadership race could change his legacy, etc.

Does Peter MacKay, Erin O-Toole, and/or Leslyn Lewis have what it takes to beat Justin Trudeau in the next 2023 election, this is really a question that can be construed as who pay themselves in the leadership role and ensure that the conservative base is kept financially sound. The recent developments of the Alberta and Saskatchewan, Michigan and Minnesota’s separatism movements in the NAFTA/ USMCA era

Regional and ideological divisions will play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the race for the Conservative leadership. Fundraising numbers published last week show us where these fissures lie — and the paths that front-runners Peter MacKay and Erin O'Toole will have to take to win.

According to data published by Elections Canada, MacKay is the fundraising leader, with $1,046,000 in donations processed by the Conservative Party to March 31 — a few days after the leadership contest was suspended temporarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The former cabinet minister from Nova Scotia beat out Ontario MP Erin O'Toole, who raised $785,000. That put both MacKay and O'Toole well ahead of Toronto lawyer Leslyn Lewis and Ontario MP Derek Sloan, who raised $448,000 and $410,000 respectively.

The former cabinet minister from Nova Scotia beat out Ontario MP Erin O'Toole, who raised $785,000. That put both MacKay and O'Toole well ahead of Toronto lawyer Leslyn Lewis and Ontario MP Derek Sloan, who raised $448,000 and $410,000 respectively.

Four other contestants who failed to qualify for the race had a combined fundraising total of $454,000.

That's a significant amount of money raised in less than three months. MacKay already has raised more than outgoing leader Andrew Scheer did during the entire eight months of his successful leadership campaign in 2017. O'Toole already has surpassed the fundraising total he recorded during that long contest, in which he placed third.Both Lewis and Sloan, the two social conservative candidates, have raised more money than the two social conservative standard bearers in the 2017 leadership race — Brad Trost and Pierre Lemieux.While MacKay beat O'Toole by more than a quarter of a million dollars in fundraising, O'Toole's campaign received more individual donations than MacKay's did, by a margin of 4,686 to 3,538. Sloan also edged out Lewis, with 2,981 individual donations to her 2,941 donations.

Some of those contributions came from people who donated multiple times, however. Removing those, we end up with 4,174 donors for O'Toole, 3,393 for MacKay, 2,566 for Lewis and 2,477 for Sloan.

So, who's really winning the fundraising race? Which is the more predictive number — dollars or donors?

The final stages of some recent federal leadership races show that each candidate's share of all money raised has had a (slightly) closer and more predictive relationship with the final outcome than their share of the total donors — particularly whenever there was a big gap between the two numbers.

That makes some sense. While it's good for a candidate to have more individual donors (they're likely to cast ballots and can become volunteers), the number of party members who vote is much larger than the number who donate.

About 141,000 party members cast ballots in the 2017 leadership contest. O'Toole's lead over MacKay in the number of donors represents less than one per cent of that number. A well-funded campaign will have an easier time getting its message to the larger pool of non-donating, voting members.

MacKay has received 39 per cent of all the dollars donated to the four candidates officially in the running, followed by O'Toole at 29 per cent, Lewis at 17 per cent and Sloan at 15 per cent. Those sound like plausible first-ballot voting results and that suggests that the votes going to Lewis and Sloan on the first ballot could end up deciding the outcome.

MacKay has received 39 per cent of all the dollars donated to the four candidates officially in the running, followed by O'Toole at 29 per cent, Lewis at 17 per cent and Sloan at 15 per cent. Those sound like plausible first-ballot voting results and that suggests that the votes going to Lewis and Sloan on the first ballot could end up deciding the outcome.

The Conservatives use a ranked ballot to determine the outcome of the race, meaning that members can rank each candidate from their first to fourth choices. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice support (weighted by riding — more on that later), then the last place candidate is dropped and their votes are re-distributed to each of their supporters' second choices. This process continues until one candidate gets over 50 per cent.

The fundraising numbers show how this could play out. MacKay could end up on top on the first ballot but short of a majority. One of the social conservative candidates would then be eliminated and his or her support redistributed; much of that support is likely to go to the remaining social conservative candidate.

If that candidate is still in third place on the second ballot, and neither MacKay nor O'Toole has reached 50 per cent at that point, then that candidate would be eliminated — and their votes would decide whether MacKay or O'Toole wins.Consider the unfathomable: We’re now in a country where Conservatives like premiers Doug Ford, Scott Moe and Brian Pallister look statesman-like while the federal lame-duck leader and his wannabes appear increasingly pathetic.While those premiers work constructively and co-operatively to reopen their provinces, federal Conservative political priorities are a mixture of coronavirus China-bashing, lazy-worker-alleging and assault-gun-defending pitches to the party’s basest instincts.

This is a party that badly needs to widen support in the mushy middle, among youth and winning over turned-off urban voters, yet every stand they take seems more likely to repel those key demographics.

Consider Andrew Scheer, who still has more than 100 days to go before he becomes the trivia answer to the question: “Who was elected Conservative leader after Stephen Harper?”His fixation on returning MPs to House of Commons accountability action in some form is not without merit, but Parliament hasn’t cracked anybody’s top-20 list of institutions Canadians in the real world desperately want reopened.

On issues they do care about, which is all coronavirus, all the time, Scheer went tone-deaf Monday by blasting Justin Trudeau for giving lazy members of the workforce so much relief money, it will act as “a tranquilizer” on the economic recovery when they refuse to report for work.Oh puh-LEEZE. Sure, there will be abuses as billions of deficit dollars are fire-hosed out the door. But, trust me on this, very few workers will give up their jobs in a dark and stormy recession for five more months of doing puzzles on a government handout.Then came Scheer’s attack on Trudeau’s semi-automatic weapons ban as a political stunt, parliamentary dodge and afront to the law-abiding hunters of this country.While there’s room for criticism of these prohibitions, the typical Toronto voter hears this unappealing stance as gunowners arguing they need an AK-15 to hunt a duck. And there’s a pair of mallards sitting in front of my house right now they could knock off with a slingshot.But, speaking of shooting, Scheer’s on the way out so this is a case of fish-meet-barrel. The key figures in this political drama are the pair frontrunning the race.And yet, as we watch our society, economy and indeed our country transform, unravel and divide, Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole offer up a void of genuine charisma and defining policy ideas beyond same-old, same-old that cost their party the last election.

MacKay seems more preoccupied with tweeting political endorsements than offering substantive constructive criticism of the costliest cash redistribution program in Canadian history and then this so-called progressive Conservative declared himself ‘outraged’ at gun controls being rolled out in the aftermath of the Nova Scotia mass murder rampage.Well, so what?If Trudeau’s consult-footdrag-consult-again government finally tightens gun ownership regulations in the aftermath of a major tragedy involving guns, it’s doubtful the timing will turn off voters in the next campaign.Mind you, Erin O’Toole went much further to allege it was an ineffective ploy to divide the nation and won’t save lives in any event.Even Rick Anderson, the dean of Conservative strategists, couldn’t stomach that. “Man,” Anderson tweeted, “this is just awful dreck. Does the gun lobby actually write it for him?”Somewhere along the pandemic road, the Conservatives have gone tone-deaf and vision-impaired.They condemn China for covering up the virus, but not one of their own candidates for making a connection between the chief public health officer’s Hong Kong heritage and alleged disloyalty to Canada.They demand a parliamentary sitting, but don’t take a stand for different and creative ways to improve the lot of Canadians in the struggle.

What’s particularly odd is how both the future leaders have charming, intelligent, self-deprecating personalities. They’d win over anyone who had a beer with them although, given this column, I might need a few kilometers of physical distancing to be safe if I joined them.The reality is that not all Canadians are totally enamored with Prime Minister Trudeau’s daily ability to throw deficit dollars at everything and everyone with an open palm. (I mean, seriously? Tens of millions to help American meatpacking giant Cargill Inc. create a safe workplace?)Voters will, sooner or later, be looking for a likable alternative to the Liberal leader which, throughout our history, has always been the Conservative boss.With just ten days left to bring in new members for the party’s August 21 vote, it’s time the two front-runners flattened their message to spread their appeal beyond the true-blue faithful.

If the Conservatives fail to sacrifice base instincts for broader appeal, they won’t have the power to do anything but sulk in opposition after the next election.

If the Conservatives fail to sacrifice base instincts for broader appeal, they won’t have the power to do anything but sulk in opposition after the next election.Then the party will go shopping for another new leader. Conservative Leader Doug Ford, anyone who doesn't return phone calls and may be plagued with his own drug scandals, etc.